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Most Recent Articles
This past weekend marked 15 years since the September 11 terrorist attack. While the weekend was best spent reflecting on those events and appreciating the friends and loved-ones and freedoms that we sometimes take for granted, there is also an important investment lesson we can all learn from the event: Market timing doesn't work. Read More »
The consensus in the 2016 presidential election was that Clinton would win, and if Trump somehow beat her, the markets would tumble. Wrong on both counts. I often say market timing is impossible because you have to be right twice—knowing both when to sell and when to buy—but there is another wrinkle to consider: Even if you predict an event's outcome correctly (like who will win an election), you also have to know how markets will react. I'm not about to abandon my simple principles of staying diversified and focusing on the long term, which I follow by partnering with the best managers at rock-bottom prices and spending time in the markets—they have served us well over the past quarter century.
In this month's issue, we try to prepare for the future by examining the past. First, I review our time-tested October Hot Hands strategy—what it is, how it's fared since I started tracking it 24 years ago, and why I chose October as the basis for this mechanical, long-term momentum-based strategy. Next, I take the claims of Jack Bogle and Vanguard's Chris Alwine, that yields on bond funds can predict future returns, and put them to the test on the real data from November 1993 to October 2016—and show you what that could mean for returns through 2026. I also examine two Vanguard funds at important milestone anniversaries. And for subscribers who are still with us after all these years, I provide a roadmap to downshift the risk in your portfolio and transition from one of our more volatile portfolios to a less risky option. Read More »
The economy posted some pretty nice growth in the third quarter, according to the updated estimates from the BEA. GDP apparently rose at a 3.2% rate, better than the first estimate of 2.9%, and if it holds into the final report, it will make Q3 the best quarter in two years. Profit growth was also strong, even after taxes, with a 7.6% gain in the quarter and the first year-over-year profit gain since the first quarter of 2015. Read More »
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"America's leading expert on investing in Vanguard funds"
Daniel P. Wiener is editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, a monthly newsletter that keeps abreast of recent developments at Vanguard, and the annual FFSA Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds. Through his newsletter and guide book, Dan helps tens of thousands of Vanguard investors choose wisely among more than 100 Vanguard mutual funds. The Adviser is a five-time winner of the Newsletter Publishers Foundation's Editorial Excellence Award. View More »
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