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Most Recent Articles
Hotline
February 11, 2016

Wall Street's Recession Is Not an Economic Recession

Stocks have definitely been bumping, while bonds have been jumping. But Dan and I are in total agreement: This is a Wall Street recession, not an economic one. Wall Street goes through these periodic selloffs. As one manager has said to us, it's like flying and hitting an air pocket. The ride gets really bumpy, but then you get through it and the ride calms down and you end up at your destination—maybe a little worse for the wear, but safe and sound. Read More »

News
February 4, 2016

Is High Yield Headed for Lows?

Jeff and I often have more to say than we can actually fit in the monthly newsletter. This past month was no exception, as we've received a number of questions about high-yield bonds, and weren't able to find room in the newsletter for a complete response. But we heard your questions and concerns, and didn't want to delay sharing our thoughts. We'll update this info at month's end for inclusion in the March newsletter, but here's our thinking. Read More »

Issue
February 1, 2016

Faulty Barometer

An old market chestnut says, "As goes January, so goes the rest of the year." There's just one problem: While the so-called January Barometer has a 72% chance of being correct, simply betting that the market will go up gives you an 82% chance of being right. So let's acknowledge that declines like those we saw this past month are a natural part of investing. While the S&P 500 ended the month down 8.9% from its May 2015 high, those losses are behind us, and selling now won't change that.

In this month's issue, Jeff DeMaso and I discuss why you're better off ignoring Wall Street myths like the January Barometer, not to mention the regular rebalancing advice that Vanguard and the media love so much. While it may sound simple in theory, the data shows it's a lot more complicated than you might think, and simply going with the flow without rebalancing isn't a bad idea. And speaking of going with the flow, we've got the full story on our momentum-driven calendar-year Hot Hands strategy. This year's pick is the first foreign fund to make the cut since a four-year streak from 2003 through 2006. Are we setting up for a repeat? Read More »

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"America's leading expert on investing in Vanguard funds"

Daniel P. Wiener is editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, a monthly newsletter that keeps abreast of recent developments at Vanguard, and the annual FFSA Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds. Through his newsletter and guide book, Dan helps tens of thousands of Vanguard investors choose wisely among more than 100 Vanguard mutual funds. The Adviser is a five-time winner of the Newsletter Publishers Foundation's Editorial Excellence Award. View More »

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Model Portfolio Performance
Models May YTD
Growth 2.0% 16.0%
Conservative Growth 1.6% 14.4%
Income 0.2% 9.1%
Growth Index 1.6% 14.4%
The average
Vanguard investor
0.1% 7.2%
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